Guili 29.3
Thomp 16.1
“Mc”- 14.3
Rom – 13.6
Huck – 8.3
Paulie 4.3

But, if it actually does turn out to be Mitt who is (/”becomes”) the Not Rudy candidate in the social conservatives’ eyes, then all bets are off (and Roasted tee’s analysis is a “but” that’s amazingly been answered?)

* * *
Extra credit. If Mitt does become POTUS then it will then become the style for a while to come for presidents to be MBAs that say Golly Gee: As, remember that the example of the non-balding, youthful Kennedy–our first Catholic POTUS, who did away with the style/standard of formality of hats-wearing for men!

But whenever this style of politicos goes out of sytle, the very next POTUS will have a close-cropped goatee. (Note that the last specifically “non-Christian” president was Teddy’s Progressive protege, Wm Taft–who was not only the last Unitarian prez of the United States but who had turned down an Ivy League university’s presidency due his dis-belief in Christ. And Taft was the prez with whiskers. Then, the first rather- overtly-agnostic prez of the United States was Lincoln (although he was said to have converted on his death bed). And Lincoln had been the Commander in Cheif with facial hair.)

Mitt = the guy hitting the ceiling this string has discussed?

While “no money” Mike = early states’ flash in the pan?

However, the likewise folksy) “He’s one of us!” Freddy, as social conservatives’ hoped-for “savior,” who is now (literally) “performing” better on the stump, has cha-ching money that maybe makes for well-wrought commercials that will = big states’ momentum on election day among social conservatives?

Nonetheless, while Fred’s enough of a dreamer to run, maybe he’s enough of a realist to know he doesn’t really stand a chance. Which brings us to Rudy, who is, of course, so many Republican voters’ not only 1st but 2nd choice. Yet, also, the “student body elections” fact is that Rudy is Freddy’s collegial friend. And…[looks side to side, then whispers]…should Rudy makes a deal for Fred to, starting now, go all negative all the time on Mitt, well…hmmm…!

“[...T]he latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Fred Thompson leading Rudy Giuliani 24% to 20%…. Mitt Romney has moved into third place and is now supported by 15% of South Carolina’s Likely Primary Voters while John McCain is barely in double digits at 11% support. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee earns 3% of the South Carolina vote while four other candidates split 5% and 22% are undecided.”

“South Carolina Republican Primary” (Real Clear Politics) Sep 5–Oct 2 poll-of-polls
———————– %
Thompson – 20.3
Giuliani —— 20.5
Romney —– 16.5
McCain —— 14.3
Huckabee — 5.3

“WASHINGTON – Traders on the Iowa Electronic Markets [...recently] gave Clinton, the senator and former first lady, a 70 percent chance of winning the Democratic nomination…. Giuliani, the former New York City mayor, had a 40 percent shot at the Republican nomination, versus a 31.5 percent chance for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

“‘It’s not like you look in the magic crystal ball and you can see what’s going to happen,’ said [Joyce Berg, of the Iowa markets board.] ‘It’s pulling together all the available information that’s out there, saying … this is what we think….’

“[Trading on] Intrade, the Dublin-based firm that claims to be the largest political prediction market [...has] produced numbers similar to those from Iowa…. John Delaney, the chief executive of Intrade, said the similar results are a sign the markets are trading on the same information….”